About half of the economists at NABE - the National Association for Business Economics - predict a recession by 2020. That’s pretty good news, right? Doesn’t that mean half of economists think we can avoid a recession in the near future? Well…. Not quite. The Associated Press reports about 90% of economists think we’ll hit a recession once the timeline is extended through the end of 2021.
On the plus side, we only have to extend our current winning streak until June of this year until we’ve matched the longest expansion period on record. It’s true that the expansion has been somewhat tepid, only jumping over 4% in sporadic doses, but that may just be the norm for future expansions given the changes in demographics, (i.e. a decreasing proportion of workforce additions), business tightening (i.e. a moderating stability of capital expenditures), and increased international competition.