I'll Have What He's Having? By: Gabriel PotterMBA, AIFA® 2017.06.12

During President Trump’s first global tour a few weeks ago, the optics were generally positive for meetings with our partners in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia & Israel.  However, this global tour was less well received in Western Europe where his declarations (e.g. NATO was obsolete, but now it isn’t – but the U.S. is still paying too much for global cooperation efforts) have alarmed some of our most constant allies.  In the US, the nationalist mantle is associated with Donald Trump.  One wonders if the recent electoral losses of similar nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen in France or Brexit champion UK Prime Minister Theresa May were partially informed by European voters looking at the current American experience and deciding it wasn’t for them.  This observation raises the question:  could nationalist candidates resurge globally if Trump does?  Sure, the President is having political problems, but James Carville’s famous adage – “It’s the economy, stupid” – suggests voters will ultimately make their decision on bottom-lines of household wealth.  From an economic point of view, we are in a near-Goldilocks scenario of low inflation (<2%), low unemployment (4.3%), and modest GDP growth (>2%).  If US strength continues unabated or improves, then voters may be willing to forgive the President’s transgressions and nationalism could rise in global popularity.

Gabriel Potter

Gabriel is a Senior Investment Research Associate at Westminster Consulting, where he is responsible for designing strategic asset allocations and conducts proprietary market research.

An avid writer, Gabriel manages the firm’s blog and has been published in the Journal of Compensation and Benefits,...

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