If you were to take a broad analysis of global topics - a quick perusal of the news – what’s new for US investors?
- The US markets: going poorly, extending another weekly slump.
- The US economy: going well, actually, despite the weakness in the markets. Better than expected with previous quarterly GDP revised up to 3.9%.
- US monetary policy: unchanged, as the Fed holds fast to their existing 0% rate target. Current bond holders get another reprieve for interest rate sensitive investments.
- US legislative policy: likely to hold firm at least until after the next election cycle.
- The world economy: weakness in China fundamentals (weaker profits for Chinese industrials, specifically yet again dominates the headlines. Projected slowdown predominantly affecting cyclical economies which depend on industrial, material, or commodities. Emerging markets continue to be outshined by developed international market’s service orientation.
- The world political environment: again, expect the status quo. No material changes in developed world elections, with Greek Syriza continuing a winning streak despite the alarms over the threatened Grexit. No imminent changes in any global hotspots (Venezuela, Iran, Cuba).
On the surface, the political positioning for the 2016– with arguments over healthcare and drug pricing, DOL fiduciary rule expansion, John Boehner’s departure from the House of Representatives, and various candidates’ tax proposals – gives food for thought, but doesn’t promise any material economic changes in the near future. The steady stream of fundamental data from the US and abroad point towards the same old, slow, subpar, bumpy growth trajectory.
So, what’s new? Not much right now.