Market Forecasts of 2020 and 2021 By: Gabriel PotterMBA, AIFA® 2021.01.21

Market Targets from January 2020

2020 was the year of COVID.  There was a steep market drop and a volatility shock in February and March as investors and businesses struggled to predict the impact of the novel coronavirus. By the latter half of the year, it was clear that the virus’ impact was going to be terrible for public health and damaging to key elements of the economy. But, it was not going to stop the gears of global growth entirely.  Forward looking investors have their eyes set to a future where mass vaccinations have rolled out and business can resume, mostly, as normal.  In the meanwhile, several industries – leisure travel and personal services, for instance – are only likely to slouch along until the darkest days are behind us.

For all of the anxiety generated by the public health crisis, some of the largest technology companies were well suited to thrive and accelerate their expansion during the COVID crisis, pushing growth and core indices to new highs.  You wouldn’t know it by looking at the securities markets, but we are still in the midst of a declared recession.  As a reminder, here are the Wall Street 2020 S&P 500 targets which we presented a year ago.

 Here are the current 2020 S&P 500 targets. 

Institution

Analyst

S&P Forecast for 2020

Bank of A. Merrill Lynch

Savita Subramanian

3300

Barclays

Maneesh Deshpande

3300

BMO Capital

Brian Belski

3400

BTIG

Julian Emanuel

3450

Canaccord Genuity

Tony Dwyer

3440

CFRA

Sam Stovall

3435

Citi

Tobias Levkovich

3375

Credit Suisse

Jonathan Golub

3425

Deutsche Bank

Binky Chadha

3250

Evercore ISI

Dennis DeBusschere

3400

Fundstrat

Tom Lee

3450

Goldman Sachs

David Kostin

3400

Invesco Global Markets

Brian Levitt

3600

Jefferies

Sean Darby

3300

JPMorgan

Dubravko Lakos-Bujas

3400


The S&P 500 was at 3229 on January 1st, 2020.  The S&P 500 hit 3756 on December 31, 2020.  Despite the steep pullback in the first quarter, the S&P hit all-time highs in the fourth quarter, besting the optimistic forecasts.  While there remain pockets of weakness in the economy and in several securities markets, the broad US stock market managed to beat expectations. 

The Updated Market Targets for 2021

Again, we started on January 1st, 2020 with the S&P at 3756.

Here are the current 2021 S&P 500 targets. 

Institution

Analyst

S&P Forecast for 2021

Bank of A. Merrill Lynch

Savita Subramanian

3800

Barclays

Maneesh Deshpande

4000

BMO Capital

Brian Belski

4200

BTIG

Julian Emanuel

4000

CFRA

Sam Stovall

4080

Citi

Tobias Levkovich

3800

Credit Suisse

Jonathan Golub

4050

Deutsche Bank

Binky Chadha

3950

Fundstrat

Tom Lee

4300

Goldman Sachs

David Kostin

4300

Jefferies

Sean Darby

4200

JPMorgan

Dubravko Lakos-Bujas

4400

Morgan Stanley

Michael Wilson

3900

Ned Davis

Ed Clissold

3900

Wells Fargo

Darrell Cronk

3900

UBS

Keith Parker

4100

Source: Dow Jones Market Watch, Barron's,Yahoo Finance

Economists generally believe that the market advance is predicated on optimism for an economic recovery.  Generally, the mood is positive, but there are concerns that much of the melt-up is due to returns pulled from the future and accommodative monetary policy.  Only time will tell how close these predictions will match reality.

DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS:

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.  Westminster Consulting, LLC reserves the right at any time and without notice to change, amend, or cease publishing the information.  It has been prepared solely for informative purposes.  It is made available on an "as is" basis.  Westminster Consulting, LLC does not make any warranty or representation regarding the information.  Without prior written permission from Westminster Consulting, LLC, it may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any form. The information in this document is confidential and proprietary to Westminster Consulting, LLC including its business units and may be legally privileged. Any unauthorized review, printing, copying, use or distribution of this document by anyone else is prohibited and may be a criminal offense. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.  Past Performance does not guarantee future results.

 

 

 

 

 

Gabriel Potter

Gabriel is a Senior Investment Research Associate at Westminster Consulting, where he is responsible for designing strategic asset allocations and conducts proprietary market research.

An avid writer, Gabriel manages the firm’s blog and has been published in the Journal of Compensation and Benefits,...

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