Paper Tiger Diplomacy By: Gabriel PotterMBA, AIFA® 2018.03.27

Last week the markets had the largest weekly decline in two years.  Monday the 26th, it has the third highest single point recovery ever.  Why the huge shift?  In a word – foreign trade.  Multiple sets of tariffs in the span of a few weeks has left investors trying to handicap global GDP on the probability of a full-blown trade war.  The bellicose threats from the administration initially seemed to provoke retaliation from Asia.  However, negotiated concessions from South Korea (which will impose limitations on US steel exports to avoid punitive tariffs) and China (including levelization of foreign and domestic rights) were announced on Monday, thus soothing markets with the easing of tensions.  Technical indicators (trend, price momentum, volume, sentiment) are still bearish, but noted analysts (Ken Fisher, et al) seem to think these shake-ups to the status quo are warranted and potentially constructive. 

Gabriel Potter

Gabriel is a Senior Investment Research Associate at Westminster Consulting, where he is responsible for designing strategic asset allocations and conducts proprietary market research.

An avid writer, Gabriel manages the firm’s blog and has been published in the Journal of Compensation and Benefits,...

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