In the financial industry, commentators are trained early (and often) to avoid making absolute declarations and to especially avoid anything that could be construed as a promise or guarantee. Despite that warning, I still feel confident giving a vague and open-ended prediction: 2019 is going to be chock full of surprises. There’s simply too much unfinished to expect the market to exist precisely as it is right now. For an obvious example, the US is still in a state of partial government shutdown which creates clear unresolved tension between the new upcoming Congress and White House. Elsewhere in the world, Britain is stirring between deeply incongruous options regarding Brexit. A hard split from the E.U. (with no deal) or a full reintegration with the E.U. are both possible outcomes. We have ongoing disputes with allies, trading partners, neighbors, and rivals. We assuredly have a political narrative and counter-narrative shaping up.
Since we are here at the heart of winter, looking towards an uncertain future, I find myself idealizing resilience and patience.
So, instead of some investment reporting or economic analysis, how about we close 2018 out with a song?
It’s the time of the turning and there’s something stirring outside
It’s the time of the turning and the old world’s falling
Nothing you can do can stop the next emerging
It’s the time of the running and we’d better learn to say our goodbyes
If we can stand up when all else falls down -
We’ll last through the winter
We’ll last through the storms
We’ll last through the north winds that bring down the ice and snow
We’ll last through the long nights ‘til the green field’s growing again.
“Time of the Turning”- Peter Gabriel